For those who are wondering or worrying …
The final 30 day push has begun in earnest in the governor’s race in California.
Yesterday the Brown camp started running the first two of a coming series of TV ads. You can view both of them over here at the TPM Café Castaways Yuku site.
While Brown’s ads run, the Whitman camp as most folks already know have been attempting to beat back the brouhaha over the families ex-housekeeper situation.
But what is really brewing under the radar is the quick rise over the past two weeks since Labor Day of Jerry Brown’s chances of taking the top spot. And this is not due to the recent Whitman/housekeeper situation. According to Nate Silver’s modeling of the race things have abruptly changed.
In Nate’s words:
“Mr. Brown is now a 60 percent favorite to win, according to the model; two weeks ago, Ms. Whitman, the Republican nominee, had been almost a 2-to-1 favorite.”
You can view some very interesting numbers over here at the TPM Café Castaways Yuku site and note the part about:
- “The chance that each candidate will win based on 100,000 simulations with random variation in the local and national political environment..”
There can be little doubt that the outcome of this race is still up in the air.
The real key as always is, Get Out The vote!
~OGD~
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