Here is a mother load of fraud in these numbers. Take a close look at these. I know some of you don’t have any background in Stats and Probability so I will try to find more explanation for you. It is all in the numbers.
May 12, 2016
Bernie Sanders’ exit poll share has exceeded his recorded vote share by greater than the margin of error in 11 of 26 primaries: AL AZ GA MA NY OH MS SC TX WI WV. The probability P that at least 11 exit polls would exceed the MoE is calculated using the Binomial distribution.
P = 1 in 76.8 BILLION = 1-BINOMDIST(10,26,0.025,true)
Is the exit poll shift to Clinton just pure luck? Or is something else going on? This is an updated analysis of estimated probabilities of fraud in the Democratic primaries. View the 2016 Democratic primaries spreadsheet.
The Margin of Error(MoE) is based on the number of respondents and the vote shares:
MoE =1.3*1.96*sqrt (EP*(1-EP)/N), where EP is the 2-party…
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