Sanders Made Political History Upset In Michigan

This is one of the most stunning upsets in presidential primaries with Sanders coming from a 20 points behind in polling to win over Clinton by a couple of points.  At this time Michigan is still counting the last votes while I write this. Nate Silver at 538 gave Hillary Clinton a 99% chance to win.

Sanders had gone to bed while campaigning in Florida not expecting a win. He then hastily had to put together a short speech  in front of cameras out side the motel he was staying in Miami to thank everyone for their work in Michigan.

This election reminds me of Mondale and Hart in 1984.

Mondale gradually pulled away from Hart in the delegate count, but the race was not decided until June, on “Super Tuesday III”.[3] Decided that day were delegates from five states: South Dakota, New Mexico, West Virginia, and the big prizes of California and New Jersey.[4] The proportional nature of delegate selection meant that Mondale was likely to obtain enough delegates on that day to secure the stated support of an overall majority of delegates, and hence the nomination, no matter who actually “won” the states contested. However, Hart maintained that unpledged superdelegates that had previously claimed support for Mondale would shift to his side if he swept the Super Tuesday III primary.[5] Once again, Hart committed a faux pas, insulting New Jersey shortly before the primary day. Campaigning in California, he remarked that while the “bad news” was that he and his wife Lee had to campaign separately, “[t]he good news for her is that she campaigns in California while I campaign in New Jersey.” Compounding the problem, when his wife interjected that she “got to hold a koala bear,” Hart replied that “I won’t tell you what I got to hold: samples from a toxic-waste dump.”[5] While Hart won California, he lost New Jersey after leading in polls by as much as 15 points.

By the time the Democratic Convention started in San Francisco Mondale had more than enough delegates to win the Democratic nomination.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_1984

I am expecting Sanders to chip away at Clinton’s lead in delegate count to win the nomination by June.  Tonight was that turning point.

I feel the Bern.

 

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4 thoughts on “Sanders Made Political History Upset In Michigan

  1. cmaukonen

    Well the 15th should be interesting. That’s when Ohio votes. Ohio is mostly red but the metro areas still carry a lot of weight, though not as much.

    Most of the Blue Collar has left Cleveland and nearly all has left Youngstown. Cincinnati is BaHa Kentucky. Hell even the airport is in Kentucky.

    Dayton is military with Wright-Patterson AFB so just guess where the upper crust whites hold any allegiance.

    Columbus is Columbus. Center city poor blacks and outer burbs white privilege.

    Cleveland is now private Universities and Health Care. The biggest employers are Cleveland Clinic and University Hospitals. Toledo is Toledo and always has been.

    So much for the metro areas. Once you get out of the metro, its rural with big AG in the south central part of the state and small family farms in the northern part. Particularly North East Ohio. These are republican areas but more the old time Eisenhower republicans. Kind of you under your breath racism “Those People”. You will see Blacks in NE Ohio but not Black culture.

    Florida:

    North of a line from Kissimmee its red neck KKK bigotry. Even in the up scale Villages area. Some liberal enclaves around the Tampa Sarasota area.

    Jax is military still. Upscale liberals around the Florida State Univ and UF in Gainsville.

    South..Dade, Broward and Palm Beach is money. Particularly Rich Jewish money. Older money in Coral Gables, newer money in Cocoa Nut Grove.
    Naples Ft Myres is rich Northern Transplants and those who left the Miami area to escape the Haitian Cuban influx.

    South Central Florida was big Ag for a while and beef cattle. Seminoles and Blacks chased out of the coasts when the land values sky rocketed.

    The Keys are the Keys and always will be.

    My take on it. Of course YMMV.

  2. If the turn out is large in Orlando, Tampa, and Miami then it will be a good primary for Sanders. It will keep him from losing with a wide margin.

    I was checking the wait times today for early voting and the turn out was brisk with a 20 min. wait. I was going to go today but it will have to be Saturday morning. It is spring break next week so many will be home to vote.

    In 2014 the turn out for the young vote was the same percentage as the over 60 voter. It was the group in between that turned out in very low numbers. We had medical Mary Jane on the ballot then. It will be back again on the ballot in Nov.

    As far as polling goes, the models that have been used in the past is really not a valid metric for what is going on in this election. I think the pollsters know this and that is why we are seeing very little poling being done.

    1. cmaukonen

      The polling does not take into young people who do not have land line. Only cell phones and they do not poll cell phones.

  3. Sanders’ internal polling is showing a single digit spread with Clinton. This was before his debate in Miami. She is less then 10% ahead of him. It will depend on turn out. My personal feeling is she lost votes with that debate.

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