Donal

Three-quarters of the television ads are against Obama and our phone has been ringing every half hour with Republican robocalls. According to Nate Silver, Romney’s campaign has thudded out in Nevada and now sees Pennsylvania as their last chance to flip a swing state.

Mr. Obama’s margins have been narrower in Nevada, but Mr. Romney has a different type of problem there: perhaps 70 percent of the state has already voted, and Democrats have locked in roughly a 7-point advantage over Republicans from the vote so far. This margin is down for Democrats from 2008, but Mr. Romney would nevertheless need an exceptional turnout on Tuesday to make up enough ground.

This has led Mr. Romney to make a last-minute play for Pennsylvania, and there is some evidence that the state has tightened slightly. But the gains for Mr. Romney may be too little and too late, or they…

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